Time-series forecasting with Python for Snowpark and dbt Labs

We used Python and Facebook Prophet to forecast demand for caretakers. All native in Snowflake!

This blog will discuss the potential of using Python in a native SQL runner such as d t/Snowflake, to enable machine learning in your data projects. This post will go over reasons as to why you would want to run Python in dbt/Snowflake, how that would work, and a code example from one of our projects. More specifically, we recently implemented Facebooks Prophet, an advanced SARIMA model, right into dbt Cloud to forecast client demand in different municipalities based on historical trends.

Why Python in dbt?

Initially, this may seem strange. Transforming data is typically performed in native SQL runners. Even though it is possible with Python, SQL is known to be much more performant when it comes to quickly querying data. However, when it comes to machine learning, Python’s rich open-source library of pre-build packages allows you to easily implement advanced machine learning techniques right into your projects. While SQL beats Python in terms of raw data querying performance, Python beautifully complements this strength by enabling the implementation of advanced machine learning techniques on that same data. As of recently, both dbt and Snowflake have enabled the writing and executing of Python code directly into their environments, enabling engineers to effectively use A.I. right in their Snowflake data warehouse.

enable a mini machine learning pipeline, end-to-end data processing

Python models

In dbt, a python model functions exactly as any other SQL model would. It can reference one or more upstream .sql models and can be referenced by downstream models using dbt’s built-in ref function. Similar to the .sql models, Python models are created by adding the .py suffix and have to reside in dbt’s models folder. While a typical .sql model would look something like this:


FROM {{ ref('ml_pre_clientdemand') }}

where ml_pre_clientdemand is a regular upstream SQL model, a python model has a slightly more complex base structure:

def model(dbt, session):

    dbt.config(materialized = "table", packages = ["pandas"])

    referenced_table = dbt.ref("ml_pre_clientdemand")

    df = referenced_table.to_pandas()

    #Python magic here!

    return df

A few things to note here:

  1. The model parameters dbt and session are required and not to be changed
  2. A dbt config block is used to configure the model as well denote any third-party packages like numpy you might want to use
  3. The ORGADMIN of the target Snowflake account must enable the use of third-party Python packages –> Using Third-Party packages in Snowflake
  4. The model has to return a single data frame, which will be materialized in your (Snowflake) data warehouse
  5. Once a SQL model is referenced (referenced_table) and converted into a data frame, all Python is fair game

In the dbt lineage graph, a Python model is indistinguishable from the regular SQL models: image

Snowpark API

Alternatively, the Snowpark API can be used to access and transform tables in Snowflake from a (local) Python IDE. It also enables you to execute Python using Snowflake’s compute power. As an example, we have used the Snowpark API to deploy a Python UDF from a local notebook to our Snowflake account that converts XML-formatted cells into the preferred JSON format. Besides UDFs, it is also possible to create Snowflake stored procedures using the Python language. This is how dbt runs the Python models in the background. Snowflake converts the Python models into a temporary stored procedure, which is called and executed once before being dropped.

Machine learning models

Now that we have a basic understanding of how Python models work in dbt, it is time to take it up a notch. Python’s open-source library of packages makes more advanced matters such as machine learning and A.I. accessible to everyone. Popular packages like Facebook’s Prophet, Amazon’s deepAR, Scikit-learn, Scipy, Pandas, and even Pytorch and Tensorflow make it easier than ever for data engineers to implement machine learning in their data projects to solve all kinds of problems. Typical use cases may be:

  1. Data clustering to group similar clients
  2. Classification to predict cancer in patients based on a collection of biomarkers
  3. Anomaly detection to detect fraud or machine defects
  4. Time series forecasting to predict future client demand based on historic data

Since both dbt and Snowflake now allow the full usage of Python, we can set up an end-to-end machine learning pipeline right in dbt and Snowflake. The next section will go into more detail about how we use dbt and Snowflake to set up an end-to-end machine learning-based forecasting system to predict future client demand for each municipality in Flanders, Belgium.

Ref case: Time series forecasting to predict client demand

A client active in-home care wanted to predict future client demand for each municipality in Flanders to steer and match employee availability to avoid having employees without clients and having clients without a caretaker. By predicting client demand in each municipality, they would be able to take employees who have too few clients from one municipality and deploy them to another where client demand exceeds employee availability. To aid in their migration to the Cloud, the following basic structure was set up: image

Using dbt Cloud, source data containing raw client and employee information is ingested into Snowflake. Next, the raw data is modeled using a collection of regular SQL models into a familiar star schema or party-event model. From the modeled data, flat tables are derived in a preprocessing step and staged to be used in a forecasting algorithm. Here, historic client demand per municipality is chronologically ordered and collected in one big table. Once the data has the right shape and format, a Python model containing the Prophet forecasting algorithm is trained on each municipality and predicts client demand for the next few months. Here is a code example of the Python model in dbt Cloud:

import pandas as pd

from prophet import Prophet

import numpy as np

from datetime import datetime

def train_predict_prophet(df, periods):

    df_prophet_input = df[['ds', 'y']]

    model = Prophet()


    future_df = model.make_future_dataframe(



    forecast = model.predict(future_df)

    return forecast

def min_max_scaling(column):

    if column.min() == column.max():

        return [1] * len(column)

    return (column - column.min())/(column.max() -  column.min())

def model(dbt, session):

    dbt.config(materialized = "table", packages = ["pandas", "numpy", "prophet"])

    my_sql_model_df = dbt.ref("ml_pre_clientdemand")

    df_main = my_sql_model_df.to_pandas() #CONVERT TO DATAFRAME DATATYPE

    df_main['DATE'] = pd.to_datetime(df_main['DATE'], format='%Y-%m-%d') #CONVERT TO CORRECT DATEFORMAT

    df_main = df_main.sort_values(by=['MUNICIPALITY', 'DATUM'])

    df_main = df_main.rename(columns={"DATUM": "ds", "KLANT_VRAAG": "y"}) #RENAME DATUM AND VAL COLUMNS TO DS AND Y FOR PROPHET

    unique_regional_cities = df_main.MUNICIPALITY.unique()

    unieke_regionale_steden= df_main.REGIONALE_STAD.unique()

    union = pd.DataFrame()

    for regionale_stad in unique_regional_cities:

        for gemeente in unique_municipalities:

            df_municipality = df_main.loc[(df_main['REGIONAL_CITY'] == regionale_stad) & (df_main['MUNICIPALITY'] == municipality)]

            if municipality.shape[0] == 0:



            unique_regions = df_municipality.REGIO.unique()

            current_region = unique_regions[0]


            df_municipality_history_deep = df_municipality.loc[(df_municipality['ds'] < datetime.strptime("2020-01-01", '%Y-%m-%d'))]

            df_municipality_history = df_municipality.loc[(df_municipality['ds'] >= datetime.strptime("2020-01-01", '%Y-%m-%d')) &       (df_gemeente['ds'] < datetime.strptime("2022-01-01", '%Y-%m-%d'))]

            df_municipality_current = df_municipality.loc[(df_municipality['ds'] >= datetime.strptime("2022-01-01", '%Y-%m-%d'))]

            scalar = df_municipality_current['y'].max() - df_municipality_current['y'].min() 

            term = df_municipality_current['y'].min() #descaling occurs by: scalar * val + ter

            if scalar < 0.001: # aka scalar is zero

                scalar = df_municipality_current['y'].max()

                term = 0

            df_municipality_history_deep['y'] = min_max_scaling(df_municipality_history_deep['y'])

            df_municipality_history['y'] = min_max_scaling(df_municipality_history['y'])

            df_municipality_current['y'] = min_max_scaling(df_municipality_current['y'])

            df_municipality = pd.concat([df_municipality_history_deep, df_municipality_history, df_municipality_current])


            forecast = train_predict_prophet(df_municipality, 160)


            forecast['REGION'] = [current_region] * len(forecast)

            forecast['REGIONAL_CITY'] = [regional_city] * len(forecast)

            forecast['MUNICIPALTY'] = [municipality] * len(forecast)

            forecast['ISFORECAST'] = [1] * len(forecast)

            forecast['SCALAR'] = [scalar] * len(forecast)

            forecast['TERM'] = [term] * len(forecast)


            union = pd.concat([union, forecast])

    union = union.reset_index(drop=True)

    union['ds'] = union['ds'].dt.date

    union = union.rename(columns={"ds": "DS", "y": "Y", "yhat":"YHAT", "yhat_lower":"YHAT_LOWER", "yhat_upper":"YHAT_UPPER"})

    return union

A few things to note here:

  • As can be seen above, while def model(dbt, session) function is required, there is no limit on the number of self-defined functions that you can use.
  • Additionally, while as much preprocessing as possible should be done in an upstream SQL model for performance purposes, some light preprocessing and postprocessing can be done if the situation calls for it. Examples are casting date formats to pandas date format, renaming columns as Prophet demands the value column to be called y and the date column to be called ds, or collecting the forecast results in a manner easily readable.
  • Lastly, the packages defined in the dbt model’s config block and those imported at the top of the file the old-fashioned way have the same functionality. However, by importing packages at the top, they allow you to set abbreviations for certain names (like pandas –> pd).

Once the output of the forecast has been collected, a postprocessing step is performed in a final SQL model before the result table is sent to the visualization tool:

  • image

Performance metrics show accurate predictions for up to a year after the last observation, implying Prophet correctly captures historic trends to predict future client demand. Although Prophet is still a relatively simple forecasting technique, it opens the door to implementing much more advanced techniques should the problem demand it. Amazon’s deepAR or other recurrent and LSTM neural networks have proven to be more accurate and more capable of learning complex patterns. However, training neural networks takes significantly longer. For this reason, performing model training and prediction in a single Python model (as shown above) is discouraged. When working with neural networks, it is much more efficient to train the model in one Python model and save the weights in a Pickle file to an internal stage in Snowflake. Next, to use the trained model, the weights can be loaded back in into a different Python model, separating training from prediction.

Niels Palmans

Niels Palmans

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We used Python and Facebook Prophet to forecast demand for caretakers. All native in Snowflake!

Time-series forecasting with Python for Snowpark and dbt Labs

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